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Rien que de filet!: NCAAW Final Four – Beyond the Stats

- by Martin Ruben
ESPN NCAA

And then there were two. Are they the two that most people wanted to see on Sunday afternoon for the NCAAW National Championship? Probably. That Dawn Staley had the luxury of sitting Kamilla Cardoso the entire fourth quarter is a testament to the resolve of South Carolina. That Wes Moore had to watch his team go from determined to deflated in a matter of minutes is equally a testament to the resolve of South Carolina.

South Carolina Took Control in this NCAAW Final Four Game

The third quarter saw a complete shift; within the first two minutes, NC State already looked stagnant, tired, and defeated. South Carolina lost no time taking advantage of that, which the third-quarter score indicated. Arms sagging, no speed up and down the court, and a look of resigned defeat on the faces of the Wolfpack was too enticing for South Carolina. The first half of the game was an altogether different story.

With as tight as it was, one might think that this could be a really tough it out back and forth game. For two quarters it was. But somewhere during halftime, NC State lost the will, the drive, and the skill to combat what South Carolina was about to throw at them. It’s easy to speculate why what happened happened. One can observe what transpires, but to attempt to determine why is almost impossible. You can point to a lack of focus and energy, but only the players know why.

You can talk about zone versus one-on-one coverage, defensive mistakes, missed opportunities, fatigue, and what have you. One can talk about shooting accuracy, taking advantage of mistakes, creating better chances, and outplaying an opponent. What you can’t discern as an observer is the psychology that goes into all of the above-mentioned points, namely, the why. While individuals may have varying degrees of focus, only that player knows why.

What Went Wrong For NC State Against The Gamecocks

Perhaps for NC State, it wasn’t so much a question of what they didn’t do, but why they didn’t do it. Did they want to win? Of course, they did. Were there moments when individual players made key baskets, doing their best? Yes, there were. But what became painfully obvious is that there did not seem to be an emotional connection between the NC State players, something that South Carolina did indeed have, throughout the game. South Carolina played like a team, and NC State did not.

To make split second on court decisions seems like an enormous mountain to climb. But that’s a significant part of the game. Setting a play is only part of it, and NC State, in the second half, seemed to have almost no game plan. I think what makes South Carolina as good as they are is their collaborative sense of where they are and what they need to do.

Have they had lapses during the NCAAW season? Yes, we’ve seen them, against their first match with LSU and within the few other close games where it looked as though South Carolina might lose. But they didn’t, and that is where that sense of where you are comes into play. I’ve often said that statistics are not my thing; they only represent a part of the game.

The psychology, the intangibles, and the whys make up the rest of it. Wes Moore and his team need to look at the whys as much as they do the physical and positional mistakes.

Which are easier to correct may be a matter of opinion, but it is something that needs to be addressed. I do not see South Carolina as a team that rests on its laurels. Also, Dawn Staley is not a coach who would let that ever happen.

Thoughts on the Iowa – UConn NCAAW Final Four Showdown

Some might say that UConn blew their lead. I say that Iowa found a way to overcome the Husky lead, not simply through Caitlin Clark, but as a team. Then UConn, as a team, found a way to come back and close the gap to within one point on a crucial Nika Mühl three. Then, well, we know what happened or didn’t happen. Was the foul on Aaliyah Edwards a foul or not? The question of good versus bad calls will continue forever, and even if it is determined that it wasn’t a foul, you don’t get a do-over.

It is not different than the foul called on Baylor when UConn played them in the tournament several years ago. That was the call, and at that moment, it was earth-shattering. In the bigger picture, it is part of the game, a nasty part, but the part of the game that makes it human. 

What I most appreciated about the game is that from the tip-off, it was a total team effort. I cannot say enough about the guarding skills of both Mühl, tasked with guarding Clark, and Hannah Stuelke, who was given Paige Bueckers to cover. In a game billed as Clark versus Bueckers, it was not, primarily due to the aforementioned guards. Each deserves significant recognition for their contributions.

A True Team Effort For Iowa and UConn

In an NCAAW season hampered by injuries, for UConn to have advanced as far as they did must be recognized and applauded. For Iowa to have come this far again is a reminder that, while Caitlin Clark has had a stellar, record-setting year, one player doesn’t win a game. Are both Bueckers and Clark the catalysts for their respective teams? Yes, they are, but for a catalyst to be effective, the rest of the team has to be receptive. That’s what we saw between Iowa and UConn.

When Clark wasn’t scoring, Stuelke, Kate Martin, and Gabbie Marshall were. When Bueckers wasn’t being selfish enough, KK Arnold, Ashlynn Shade, and Edwards took it to the hoop. I agree with Geno Auriemma when he says he wants Paige to be more selfish. That may be an intrinsic part of Paige’s character, to share more, and while outside of basketball that is certainly an admirable and increasingly rare quality, on the court, take advantage of who you are and what you can do, giving yourself the luxury of being a little more selfish.

I also want to take a moment and throw some love at both Arnold and Shade. While neither put up numbers like JuJu Watkins or Hannah Hidalgo, enough cannot be said about the major contributions each made to get UConn to where they are. These are two terrific freshmen. 

Personal Observations Of This Game

As I watched, I saw two teams who never stopped and never gave up. When UConn took their 12-point lead, Iowa did not stop playing. When Iowa tied it up, erasing the UConn lead, UConn didn’t back down and got right back into it. Did foul trouble make UConn either consciously or subconsciously a little more cautious? My guess is yes, but that’s just speculation. As opposed to the previous game, that look of determination never left anyone’s face, for both teams. Stats only tell you what happened, but they don’t tell you why. 

Pundits will have a good time dissecting the game, telling you why this or that happened, but what they have to say is only based on what they saw, and one can spin anything anyway to suit their own opinion. I saw two teams with equal passion, desire, and skills. Do I think Paige should shoot more? Yes. Do I think Clark needs to hone her defensive skills to be successful in the WNBA? Yes.

The significant difference between these two is that Paige gets another year to work on it, and Clark is going to have to learn on the fly. I have heard some people criticize Iowa, and say that when Clark, Martin, and Marshall leave, Iowa will have a very tough time recreating its success. That may be, but somehow I don’t think Lisa Bluder is going to sit idly by and wait for another Caitlin Clark. There won’t be, but someone else will show up and give them something different.

Looking To The NCAAW Championship Game and Beyond

Will UConn sorely miss Mühl and Edwards? Without question. Is there another guard for UConn at the moment who can step into Nika’s role, or will UConn look to the transfer portal to bring someone in who can continue to mentor the younger guards? Quite possibly. Will a healthy UConn squad put enough firepower back on the court to win another NCAAW Championship? Very likely.

If the coming NCAAW season ends up being Paige’s final year at UConn, is there someone on the horizon who can lead the team, or is someone already there? These are things that are certainly worth waiting for, from both teams. How Iowa fares against South Carolina, no matter what anyone says, is still just speculation. At this moment, no one really knows. I do not for a minute think a South Carolina win is a sure thing, nor do I think that Clark is single-handedly going to take down the Gamecocks.

I think both these teams and coaches are too smart for that. In fact, I think that’s what we’re going to see, smart basketball. Not just good, skillful basketball, but smart basketball. That sounds good to me.

And that, my friends, as they say, is that.’ — Martin Ruben.

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About Martin Ruben

Aloha - The Dodgers were still in Brooklyn when I was a kid. I was never a Yankees fan. I'm a season ticket holder for the Minnesota Lynx, a big UConn WBB fan, and an avid Arsenal supporter. I consider myself a student of basketball. If I were to write an autobiography, it would be called SERIOUS FUN.

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